Emerging Questions

By “societal collapse”, we mean the gradual – or potentially abrupt – breakdown of what is often described as the Western way of life: secure access to water, food, energy, healthcare, housing, safety, legal equality, education, and freedom.

The use of the term social, rather than economic or political, is crucial. It highlights that what is at stake is the failure of an entire, interdependent system – one whose collapse brings down all its constituent parts, and ultimately, us with them.

What do we mean by “deep”?

Unlike conventional disaster-response thinking, this approach looks beneath the surface. It engages with both the underlying causes and the possible responses, at the level of individuals as well as societies.

Is this only about climate change?

No. However, climate change places an extraordinary strain on both natural and human systems – one we can no longer stop, reverse, or meaningfully slow.

Runaway climate change is just one of several existential threats we face, but it is unquestionably the most severe in terms of its consequences. It represents an unsolvable condition that, on its own, is likely to bring about the end of industrial civilisation, regardless of what we do.

Who will experience collapse, where, and how?

Some communities around the world are already living it. The most vulnerable will be affected first and most severely. Its impacts will not be felt everywhere at the same time, nor in the same way. Yet within a highly interconnected global economic and social system, domino effects tend to spread rapidly. In any case, warnings from organisations such as the United Nations deserve to be taken very seriously.

Does it make sense to prepare for collapse?

Yes, it does. Unlike mitigation, adaptation is primarily a matter of self-interest, and people are most easily moved to action through their own interests. Those who take the changes ahead seriously are also more likely to reduce their carbon footprint and slow the destruction of nature.

This, in turn, buys us time to adapt. And the more time we have to prepare, the greater our chances of holding our societies together – and keeping our systems functional – for longer. Quite literally, this is a matter of survival.

When will social collapse occur?

For most people, it is still difficult to imagine life changing in such a drastic way. Yet growing social unrest and civil disobedience suggest that more and more people are beginning to realise that the familiar idea of “normal life” is coming to an end. Our first task is to learn how to value and live our lives under these conditions – starting with letting go of comforting illusions.

Neither technology, nor renewable energy, nor political revolution can prevent the collapse of our civilisation.

Understanding and accepting this is the very first step. The second is to stop clinging to forecasts about when, where, and how collapse might unfold in the short term. Like a wobbling Jenga tower, we can be certain it will fall, but we can never know the exact moment or direction. The human-made system we inhabit is too chaotic for such predictions to be truly useful. The time and energy spent guessing are better invested elsewhere.

Is it still worth trying to stop climate change?

Yes, but not with the widely held belief that we can fully stop it; not with the assumption that success is guaranteed; and not with the conviction that this goal overrides all other considerations.

What guidance does Deep Adaptation offer?

In 2018, Professor Jem Bendell highlighted that the dominant approach within the scientific community assumes our current economic, social, and political systems are resilient enough to adapt to immense challenges and continue largely unchanged. In contrast, he introduced Deep Adaptation to describe a perspective that accepts the collapse of natural and human systems as a real possibility – within our own lifetimes.

To support adaptation, he proposed the 4R framework, using four guiding questions to clarify the tasks ahead:

• Resilience: What should we preserve?
• Relinquishment: What must we let go of?
• Restoration: What needs to be brought back?
• Reconciliation: Who or what do we need to make peace with?

Does global collapse mean human extinction?

Collapse may be inevitable, catastrophe likely, and extinction possible. The scale of risk confronting humanity is profound, but this does not mean that everyone, or everything, will perish. It does mean that the world as we have known it will be transformed beyond recognition.